Kenya Socialist Web Site


September 15th 2005

 

http://www.timesnews.co.ke/15sep05/editorials/comm1.html

 

OF ORANGES AND TALK OF REVOLUTION

 

By Onyango Oloo

 

IT is obvious that politicians from both the "No" and "Yes" camps are slightly under the influence of their respective orange and banana-based slogans. But whatever happens in Kenya on November 21, 2005, the one thing we know for certain is not going to be happening is a "revolution."

 

What is a revolution? Well, let us turn to this guy Lenin, who is credited with knowing one or two things about this particular subject: There was a time when he said that: "Whoever expects to see a ‘pure’ social revolution will never live to see it. Such a person pays lip-service to revolution without understanding what revolution is..."

 

But he is also remembered for saying this: it is indisputable that a revolution is impossible without a revolutionary situation; furthermore, it is not every revolutionary situation that leads to revolution. What, generally speaking, are the classical symptoms of a revolutionary situation according to dialectical scholars ? They pointed to three major symptoms: (1) when it is impossible for the ruling classes to maintain their rule without any change; when there is a crisis, in one form or another, among the "upper classes", a crisis in the policy of the ruling class, leading to a fissure through which the discontent and indignation of the oppressed classes burst forth.

 

For a revolution to take place, it is usually insufficient for "the lower classes not to want" to live in the old way; it is also necessary that "the upper classes should be unable" to live in the old way; (2) when the suffering and want of the oppressed classes have grown more acute than usual; (3) when, as a consequence of the above causes, there is a considerable increase in the activity of the masses, who uncomplainingly allow themselves to be robbed in "peace time", but, in turbulent times, are drawn both by all the circumstances of the crisis and by the "upper classes" themselves into independent historical action.

 

Without these objective changes which are independent of the will, so the ideologues prescribed, not only of individual groups and parties but even of individual classes, a revolution, as a general rule, is impossible and that the totality of all these objective changes is called a revolutionary situation.

 

Such dialectical prescriptions stopped being in vogue but even assuming that they were correct pointers, would anybody say we have met the above litmus test in Kenya? In particular, can we say today that "...there is a considerable increase in the activity of the masses, who uncomplainingly allow themselves to be robbed in "peace time", but, in turbulent times, are drawn both by all the circumstances of the crisis and by the "upper classes" themselves into independent historical action..."?

 

It may well be that one of the weaknesses on the Kenyan political front is precisely the assumption that the wananchi are not, as a matter of argument yet, fully organized to take "independent historical action!.

 

Again for the sake of argument, Kenya does not have such ideological orientations concretized in the name of an independent political party while the other probable route, the trade union movement has no such inclinations. True there may be consensus on the need for a democratic constitution. At the moment the forces that would appear to be articulating this national consensus happen to be fractious.

 

Perhaps it is probable for this national consensus to bring about a democratic breakthrough but the reality is that it would be a figment of fertile imagination if anybody insisted that this country is at the doorstep of a catacyclismic revolutionary upheaval within the next two months. And so we must remember what all these "oranges" and "bananas" are about:

 

They are symbols to be used to identify the two options we have on the referendum ballot come November 21, 2005. The "banana" stands for those who will choose to endorse the Wako draft The "orange" stands for those who will be opposing the same draft.

 

Whatever the outcome, on November 22, 2005, Kenyans will not have a democratic constitution under any circumstances. We will either have the new constitution that mainly pro-Kibaki forces want or we will be stuck with the current undemocratic constitution that Kenyans have been agitating against for the last 15 years or so.

 

The referendum offers Kenyans an opportunity of moving forward with the quest for a new, just democratic constitutional dispensation. Its result will not actually accord us this dispensation. It is important for Kenyans to be clear on this. That is why it is important for us to put away any orange or banana flavoured notions and instead reflect soberly on the political tasks ahead.

 

But certainly the referendum should be an opportunity for us to introspect ahead of the 2007 elections and possibly, a turning point in our national consciousness as we shun narrow tribal identities, parochial religious bigotry and self-seeking opportunistic mainstream politicking as we embrace a national, tolerant, diverse, patriotic and focused political vision in Kenya.

 

Beyond those objectives, any talk of "revolution" is strictly speaking reckless adventurism. And speaking of the colour of revolutions, one would be especially wary of importing wily nilly into the Kenyan context, labels manufactured elsewhere. If anything, the appellation of "Orange Revolution" is one we should be wincing away from.

 

How many of the NO chieftains really know what the so called "Orange Revolution" was all about? Those who had followed that Ukrainian upheaval from start to finish get goose bumps every time we hear the NO forces yell about the upcoming "Orange Revolution" in Kenya.

 

Those not in picture can read for themselves what the Orange Revolution was all about before making up their mind whether a figure like Viktor Yushchenko is what we want to emulate and carbon copy in Kenya. The No forces should simply concentrate on the task at hand-- defeating the passage of the Wako Draft a the Yes forces push the opposite way.

 

Copyright © 2003 Kenya Times Media Trust,All rights reserved.

 


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